Investors Are Getting Killed In ETFs

A new analysis by Vanguard Group founder John Bogle indicates that investors are generally making poor decisions when buying and selling exchange-traded funds.

Bogle compared the returns of 79 ETFs in a variety of major asset categories over the past five years to the returns of the average dollar invested in those ETFs over the same time period. It’s a common statistical practice in mutual fund analysis, allowing investors to see whether they’re buying at the bottom and selling at the top, or vice versa.

While investor returns typically trail fund returns by some margin, Bogle expressed surprise at the degree to which investor returns suffered in ETFs.

“These numbers … are unbelievably consistent,” said Bogle. “Out of 79 ETFs we covered, 68 had investor returns that were … short of the returns earned by the funds themselves. “

And by no small margin. The degree of investor-lag ranged from 0.4% per year for large-cap value funds to -17.9% per year for financials ETFs. Investors seemed to do the worst in high-profile and volatile sectors like emerging markets, financials and REITS.

“So we have evidence—strong evidence—that exchange-traded funds, because of the timing that goes on in them, are not acting in the best interest of investors. Or, that investors are not acting in their own best interests, which may be a better way to put it.”

Click here to view a full replay of the Bogle webinar.

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