What effects the price of a stock?

Did you ever hear a "stock pickers" rational for picking a stock?

Have you heard the "efficient market theorists" say you can get the same (or better results) by throwing darts at a newspaper?

Well, the reality is closer to the dart thrower's version, but not because the markets are efficient - because the future is unpredictable.

Below is a list of just of few of the risk factors that will determine a stock's future price. How many of them do you think are predictable?

• Market trends
• Industry trends
• Political events
• Business issues
• Technological changes
• Geological (i.e. earthquakes)
• Weather (hurricanes, cold or heat spells)
• Cost of energy
• Product
• Materials
• Management error or bad decisions
• Competition from traditional or non-traditional sources
• Interest rates
• Inflation rates
• Value/obsolescence of inventory
• Condition of manufacturing equipment
• Value of buildings and land
• Access to and cost of insurance
• Theft or dishonesty
• Regulations by government
• Political risks
• Currency risks
• Labor shortage and relations
• Stockholder activists (proxy)
• Brand erosion
• Consumer fads
• Credit ratings
• Winning new or losing existing customers

The quatifiable stuff - discounted cash flows and dividend discount models, liquidation value, going concern value - those are easy, but provide just a portion of the information you need.